Sequence of Returns Risk Calculator
Compare best and worst return-order outcomes during retirement withdrawals.
Best-case ending
$2,812,796.03
Worst-case ending
$0.00
Sequence risk gap
$2,812,796.03
Worst-case depletion year
20
Scenario Compare
Save up to 4 sequence risk scenarios.
No scenarios saved yet.
Best vs Worst Return Order
Same average return, different sequence
| Year | Best Return | Worst Return | Best Balance | Worst Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | -4% | $1,102,000.00 | $912,000.00 |
| 2 | 15.31% | -3.31% | $1,213,064.83 | $833,464.83 |
| 3 | 14.62% | -2.62% | $1,333,112.93 | $762,932.65 |
| 4 | 13.93% | -1.93% | $1,461,863.83 | $699,165.67 |
| 5 | 13.24% | -1.24% | $1,598,814.08 | $641,107.06 |
| 6 | 12.55% | -0.55% | $1,743,216.95 | $587,845.78 |
| 7 | 11.86% | 0.14% | $1,894,067.51 | $538,587.64 |
| 8 | 11.17% | 0.83% | $2,050,094.36 | $492,631.12 |
| 9 | 10.48% | 1.52% | $2,209,759.42 | $449,346.90 |
| 10 | 9.79% | 2.21% | $2,371,266.90 | $408,160.08 |
| 11 | 9.1% | 2.9% | $2,532,582.23 | $368,534.37 |
| 12 | 8.41% | 3.59% | $2,691,461.56 | $329,957.67 |
| 13 | 7.72% | 4.28% | $2,845,491.70 | $291,928.28 |
| 14 | 7.03% | 4.97% | $2,992,140.08 | $253,941.27 |
| 15 | 6.34% | 5.66% | $3,128,813.79 | $215,474.50 |
| 16 | 5.66% | 6.34% | $3,252,926.02 | $175,973.57 |
| 17 | 4.97% | 7.03% | $3,361,967.87 | $134,835.16 |
| 18 | 4.28% | 7.72% | $3,453,583.04 | $91,387.94 |
| 19 | 3.59% | 8.41% | $3,525,642.57 | $44,870.24 |
| 20 | 2.9% | 9.1% | $3,576,316.36 | $0.00 |
| 21 | 2.21% | 9.79% | $3,604,138.51 | $0.00 |
| 22 | 1.52% | 10.48% | $3,608,063.37 | $0.00 |
| 23 | 0.83% | 11.17% | $3,587,509.42 | $0.00 |
| 24 | 0.14% | 11.86% | $3,542,388.74 | $0.00 |
| 25 | -0.55% | 12.55% | $3,473,120.39 | $0.00 |
| 26 | -1.24% | 13.24% | $3,380,626.48 | $0.00 |
| 27 | -1.93% | 13.93% | $3,266,310.93 | $0.00 |
| 28 | -2.62% | 14.62% | $3,132,021.41 | $0.00 |
| 29 | -3.31% | 15.31% | $2,979,995.87 | $0.00 |
| 30 | -4% | 16% | $2,812,796.03 | $0.00 |
Insights
Generate a concise interpretation of your inputs and outputs. This is educational and hypothetical.
What It Is
The Sequence of Returns Risk calculator shows how return order can change retirement outcomes even when average return is the same.
It compares best-case and worst-case return sequencing during withdrawals.
How It Works
The tool creates a return series around your average return and dispersion input.
Two simulations are run: good returns early (best case) and poor returns early (worst case), with fixed annual withdrawals.
Formula
Each year: post-withdrawal balance = max(0, prior balance - withdrawal), then growth is applied based on that year's return.
Sequence risk gap = best-case ending balance - worst-case ending balance.
Example
Two retirees can face identical average returns but different outcomes depending on whether early years are positive or negative.
This is why withdrawal-phase risk management is often focused on early retirement years.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this Monte Carlo?
No. It is a deterministic best/worst ordering model.
Does withdrawal increase with inflation?
This version keeps withdrawal fixed for clarity.
Can worst-case deplete before horizon?
Yes, depletion year is reported when applicable.